The impact of changing health indicators on infant mortality rates in Brazil, 2000 and 2005.

OBJECTIVES To investigate the associations between changes in indicators of health-related resources and coverage, and variations in infant mortality rates (IMR) in Brazil's 27 states in 2000 and 2005. METHODS Data were obtained from the Ministry of Health's online database, DATASUS. Stepwise multiple regressions were performed to model changes in IMR and its components (early, late, and post-neonatal mortality), using changes in the selected health indicators as predictors. RESULTS Regression analysis showed that improving access to prenatal care (B = -0.89 per 1 000; P < 0.001), increasing public expenditure on health as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) (B = -0.72 per 1 000; P = 0.031), and increasing access to the water supply (B = -0.22 per 1 000; P = 0.033) were associated with significant reductions in IMR. Declining early neonatal mortality rates were associated with prenatal care (B = -0.14 per 1 000; P = 0.026) and access to sanitation services (B = -0.05 per 1 000; P = 0.026). Reductions in late neonatal mortality rates were associated with prenatal care (B = -0.12 per 1 000; P = 0.003) and inversely correlated to the rate of cesarean deliveries (B = 0.13 per 1 000; P = 0.005). Post-neonatal mortality rate reductions were associated with prenatal care (B = -0.64 per 1 000; P < 0.001), increasing public expenditure on health as a proportion of GDP (B = -0.76 per 1 000; P = 0.005), and access to the water supply (B = -0.17 per 1 000; P = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS Improving access to prenatal care, increasing public expenditure on health, and access to sanitation and water supply were all independently correlated to declining IMR; however, higher rates of cesarean deliveries were associated with higher late neonatal mortality rates. Continuous collection and analysis of relevant health indicators is recommended for developing evidence-based health policies and accurate predictions of how specific public health interventions might impact IMR.